Time for another great weather debate. There appears to be conflicting reports on just what kind of winter we can expect this year in South Dakota.

I read recently that the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a cold, snowy winter for a great portion of South Dakota.

Now I see meteorologists from both South Dakota and Illinois have predicted warmer, drier than normal conditions for the state this winter, thanks to an El Nino weather system.

They say El Nino will continue to play a significant role in North America’s climate for the next several months, according to the latest temperature and precipitation outlooks, released Thursday by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Laura Edwards, SDSU Extension Climate Field Specialist says we can expect "The current El Nino to increase in intensity through the winter season." Resulting in warmer conditions during the months ahead.

According to Edwards, this should mean near average temperatures throughout the month of September.

There's an area south of South Dakota that expands from the Four Corners to the Great Lakes which is forecast to be cooler than average in September. This region just touches southern South Dakota in the updated maps says Edwards.

South Dakota state climatologist Dennis Todey said recently in a new release that a large area of the nation is leaning toward wetter than average conditions in September. With the highest likelihood focused over the southwest, expanding eastward into the Great Plains. This area just reaches into the southern counties of South Dakota.

Todey predicts the Southern Plains should be cooler than average during the months of September through November. While much of the Northern Plains and Midwest region, including South Dakota, is projected to have equal chances of temperatures that are near above, below or near average.

During a national conference call, Illinois state climatologist Jim Angel said "El Nino will probably stay strong at the top of the charts all the way through December, January and February, and then taper off."

According to Angel, that translates into a warmer, drier winter.

El Nino tends to reduce winter snowfall in some cases.

However Angel points out that you can’t assume one El Nino will act like another. He cited two extreme examples where El Nino wasn’t the whole story.

One being the wintertime departure during 1997-98, when the winter was so mild that people were actually playing golf in Chicago in January. The other, the winter of 2009-2010 that was much colder than average.

So when it comes right down to it, it's anybody's best guess what the weather will be like during the winter months in South Dakota. My advice, get ready to get reacquainted with your winter coat again. But keep those golf clubs handy. Who knows, maybe you'll be playing 18 holes over the holidays?

Source: Yankton Daily Press & Dakotan 

More From KIKN-FM / Kickin' Country 99.1/100.5